I wanted to get that info out there because I've been feeling under the weather and didn't want to fall asleep for 12 hours to find Lehki lynched and my weird play on portius painting a target on me, thus killing me.
I am not your investigator, I am not even town. Just a survivor.
2014/04/19 01:38:01 - Leolamins drained 2000000 power to raise Silvanus as a Vernal Ascendant.
2014/07/23 05:01:29 - Silvanus drained 2000000 power to raise Munsia as a Vernal Ascendant.
2015/05/24 06:03:07 - Silvanus drained 2000000 power to raise Arimisia as a Vernal Ascendant.
2015/05/24 06:03:58 - Silvanus drained 2000000 power to raise Lavinya as a Vernal Ascendant.
Going to tentatively VOTE: PORTIUS. It's a name that just keeps on popping up and I'm starting to get suspicious
It's a name that keeps popping up because Silvanus has a bizarre desire to lynch me. Thus far, it doesn't seem like there are terribly many people who agree with him.
I mean, I can claim if I have to. I'd rather not, seeing as it's day 2. It'd be less than desirable for the town, but not catastrophically so. I think I have enough info in my role to verify myself pretty well, but it'd give info to both the scum and town. Maybe worth it? I'm not sure who would get more value.
But before you decide if I should claim or not, here's my argument as to why it's bad idea:
Silvanus only made this claim after Fal used his power and made it impossible to verify.
Presumably, Silvanus is claiming an investigator role here. There's no other way he could just say that I'm Fire Nation. With this timing, you have to take it on faith. If he had done it before Fal used his power, he could've done something like this:
"Hey, I investigated Portius last night and found out that he was Fire Nation. Lie check this."
Doing that would confirm him and his claim beyond reasonable doubt. It would also let you test Fal by flipping me to verify his truth telling. Outcome, two people more or less confirmed as town, one confirmed as scum. That's about as good as you can get from any power. Much better than a random investigation, which is what happened.
Now, you could make the argument that he was trying to get me lynched without claiming investigator. That's reasonable, and it holds up for about half the day. His voodoo math to direct Fal to lie detect me could have accomplished that if it wasn't such a flimsy argument. But it fell apart well before Fal used his power. Fal even said that he didn't buy it. So Silvanus should've known that it wasn't going to work and just told Fal to check me if that's what he wanted. That outs the same number of people as what he actually did, but provides more information
With all of that, it seems like Silvanus really doesn't want to make a verifiable claim.
Any sufficiently advanced pun is indistinguishable from comedy.
And I got sniped. Upon reading the post from Silvanus:
There's not actually an argument there. He's just asserting that I'm scum, and admitting that his basis for this is some fairly arbitrary grouping of players with questionable (or at least I think they're questionable) assumptions behind it.
Any sufficiently advanced pun is indistinguishable from comedy.
After exhaustively rereading posts, I'm just going to UNVOTE. I do at least somewhat agree that Silvanus is sketchy, but there's a lot of that going around so back to observing I guess
Lehki isn't going to be lynched today if I have my way. Every thing he's posted besides "I win with Team Avatar" has been true.
I'm interested in this Silvanus/Portius dynamic though. Is it possible that Silvanus is Azula and willing to throw Portius under the bison to keep her name from suspicion?
Everiine said: The reason population is low isn't because there are too many orgs. It's because so many facets of the game are outright broken and protected by those who benefit from it being that way. An overabundance of gimmicks (including game-breaking ones), artifacts that destroy any concept of balance, blatant pay-to-win features, and an obsession with convenience that makes few things actually worthwhile all contribute to the game's sad decline.
Everiine said: The reason population is low isn't because there are too many orgs. It's because so many facets of the game are outright broken and protected by those who benefit from it being that way. An overabundance of gimmicks (including game-breaking ones), artifacts that destroy any concept of balance, blatant pay-to-win features, and an obsession with convenience that makes few things actually worthwhile all contribute to the game's sad decline.
She could also fool Falaeron's truth power and knows it.
Everiine said: The reason population is low isn't because there are too many orgs. It's because so many facets of the game are outright broken and protected by those who benefit from it being that way. An overabundance of gimmicks (including game-breaking ones), artifacts that destroy any concept of balance, blatant pay-to-win features, and an obsession with convenience that makes few things actually worthwhile all contribute to the game's sad decline.
Only thing I can think of would be to look at the people who brought up Azula as a probable character, but that's super flimsy
Azula was pretty much the antagonist of the series. Why would suggesting her be suspicious?
Everiine said: The reason population is low isn't because there are too many orgs. It's because so many facets of the game are outright broken and protected by those who benefit from it being that way. An overabundance of gimmicks (including game-breaking ones), artifacts that destroy any concept of balance, blatant pay-to-win features, and an obsession with convenience that makes few things actually worthwhile all contribute to the game's sad decline.
Only thing I can think of would be to look at the people who brought up Azula as a probable character, but that's super flimsy
On the contrary, I think using knowledge of the series is savvy play in this. It gives us an idea of how plausible and how certain a claim is. Fal's early game was erratic, but Toph is a core character and a lot of my confidence in him is coming from the fact that nobody counterclaimed Toph (With the admission that on day one I heard horses and thought zebras). Thinking of the series characters is also why my feelings on Shaddus/Silvanus are "pretty dang shady" instead of an immediate call to lynch.
That said, we probably don't want to get too reliant on the lore. Selenity's pretty clever, and I suspect the roles are built around balance crunch more than lore fluff.
It is quite simple why I didn't out myself earlier, there wasn't any need to nor was there any play. You can build a case against someone without having to out yourself, and see who rushes to defend and reflect.
And then when I out myself, you can see those rushing to defend again. Portius wins with the Fire Nation, you do not need a lie detector to be convinced of a Day two reveal by someone who has investigative powers that doesn't read the role sheet.
2014/04/19 01:38:01 - Leolamins drained 2000000 power to raise Silvanus as a Vernal Ascendant.
2014/07/23 05:01:29 - Silvanus drained 2000000 power to raise Munsia as a Vernal Ascendant.
2015/05/24 06:03:07 - Silvanus drained 2000000 power to raise Arimisia as a Vernal Ascendant.
2015/05/24 06:03:58 - Silvanus drained 2000000 power to raise Lavinya as a Vernal Ascendant.
Oh should probably mention regarding Falaeron. I did get a mod message from him using his power on me, and the flavor of it pretty much confirms Falaeron as lie detecting Toph to me.
You say portius wins with the Fire Nation. Is that the only win condition for him? Does it ever change?
Everiine said: The reason population is low isn't because there are too many orgs. It's because so many facets of the game are outright broken and protected by those who benefit from it being that way. An overabundance of gimmicks (including game-breaking ones), artifacts that destroy any concept of balance, blatant pay-to-win features, and an obsession with convenience that makes few things actually worthwhile all contribute to the game's sad decline.
It is quite simple why I didn't out myself earlier, there wasn't any need to nor was there any play. You can build a case against someone without having to out yourself, and see who rushes to defend and reflect.
And then when I out myself, you can see those rushing to defend again. Portius wins with the Fire Nation, you do not need a lie detector to be convinced of a Day two reveal by someone who has investigative powers that doesn't read the role sheet.
So I had an image, but I couldn't get it to show up nicely in the preview. Pretend there's a nice picture of Angkor Wat here, with my asserting that it's a visual pun and you can figure out what it means.
It's getting late in my timezone. I might be too sleepy to figure out what you mean here. But that's enough of a persistent problem that I'm starting to assume you're being vague on purpose. So explain this like I'm five:
What is this Day Two reveal by someone who has investigative powers? It can't be Fal, because he revealed on Day One. It can't be Lehki or Shaddus, because while they did sort of reveal their roles (I think we all know who they're implicitly claiming, right?) they aren't claiming investigative powers. You also claimed today, but as a survivor who is explicitly not an investigator. But saying that you don't need a lie detector to be convinced of that reveal makes it sound like you're referring to your reveal. Which was, by your own claim, not done by an investigator. So is that just a weird way of saying that you made observations and drew a conclusion? Or are you actually claiming a power now? Or am I a blind idiot who missed someone claiming investigator?
And who are these people who are rushing to defend me? Since you made your reveal, the closest thing to defending me that I can see is Arix voting for me and then changing his mind and unvoting. You've got Sylandra saying she's open to lynching me, but that's the opposite of defending.
Any sufficiently advanced pun is indistinguishable from comedy.
I get home at nearly midnight and log in to some...wow, this is insane. I'll admit I'm usually the first to rush to defend Portius but after the Dame Maeve play last game, I'm more than a little...not?
I have no idea what I'm going to contribute at present to the conversation, so this is just me checking in again to confirm I am following along. Will post in the morning after having some coffee and before I have to check in for work.
Ixion tells you, "// I don't think anyone else had a clue, amazing form."
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SylandraJoin Queue for Mafia GamesThe Last Mafia Game
Hmmm. Vote Portius.
Take a journey with me for a second. We learned a few things today. 1) We don't see whether or not a detected lie is perceived as a lie. Only @Falaeron does. 2) We have @Silvanus declaring that @Portius is officially a mafia, and says he was certain of it last night. 3) We have @Falaeron saying that @Lehki lied about being Team Avatar. 4) We have @Shaddus saying that Lehki's claims match his and that he's inclined to assume @Lehki is third party who becomes town. This matches the way that both Shaddus and Lehki have been posting. 5) @Shaddus has just shared information with @Falaeron via a handshake that only he has seen the result of. I think Portius is our best bet because it gives us an idea of how much to trust Silvanus. This is valuable info that we don't gain from other lynches right now. It also explains Silvanus's push on Portius which otherwise felt a bit random. I buy that his posts line up with a townie trying to nonchalantly hide his knowledge, then caving and revealing it when town doesn't bite the bait and starts trusting the scumbag.
Meanwhile @Falaeron has an idea now of how much to trust Shaddus from his daypower and as such can use that information to decide if he will trust Lehki. I'm assuming though that power is a tip off towards leaving Lehki alone; otherwise why play it today?
"Oh yeah, you're a naughty mayor, aren't you? Misfile that Form MA631-D. Comptroller Shevat's got a nice gemstone disc for you, but yer gonna have to beg for it."
I'm leaning towards Portius as well. If Silvanus is scum, I think he unnecessarily backed himself into a corner by definitely stating that he knows Portius to be scum. If we're wrong about Portius then we can just lynch or vig Silvanus next. 1 for 1 trade will be in Town's favor.
I think at this point it is in our best interests for Portius and Silvanus to reveal everything they have.
I disagree. I think if we kill Portius and he's scum we can let Silvanus breathe awhile. But if Portius is town then we give Silvanus full interrogation tomorrow.
This isn't a bad gamble for a day 2 play. It's fantastic odds.
"Oh yeah, you're a naughty mayor, aren't you? Misfile that Form MA631-D. Comptroller Shevat's got a nice gemstone disc for you, but yer gonna have to beg for it."
I think at this point it is in our best interests for Portius and Silvanus to reveal everything they have.
I disagree. I think if we kill Portius and he's scum we can let Silvanus breathe awhile. But if Portius is town then we give Silvanus full interrogation tomorrow.
This isn't a bad gamble for a day 2 play. It's fantastic odds.
Thing is Portius will (or at least should) reveal everything before he gets lynched. If his claim is compelling enough, it makes a lot of sense to look more closely at Silvanus instead.
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SylandraJoin Queue for Mafia GamesThe Last Mafia Game
Eh. In that case we do push Silvanus. But if Portius isn't compelling I say we let the lynch speak for itself. Even if he is compelling I'm probably more inclined to trust Silvanus saying "I have investigative know how" than Portius saying "Silvanus is a wacko" at this moment in time.
"Oh yeah, you're a naughty mayor, aren't you? Misfile that Form MA631-D. Comptroller Shevat's got a nice gemstone disc for you, but yer gonna have to beg for it."
I think at this point it is in our best interests for Portius and Silvanus to reveal everything they have.
I disagree. I think if we kill Portius and he's scum we can let Silvanus breathe awhile. But if Portius is town then we give Silvanus full interrogation tomorrow.
This isn't a bad gamble for a day 2 play. It's fantastic odds.
Unless silvanus is throwing Portius under the bus to evade radar.
Everiine said: The reason population is low isn't because there are too many orgs. It's because so many facets of the game are outright broken and protected by those who benefit from it being that way. An overabundance of gimmicks (including game-breaking ones), artifacts that destroy any concept of balance, blatant pay-to-win features, and an obsession with convenience that makes few things actually worthwhile all contribute to the game's sad decline.
That seems like a really bad play to me. Silvanus is the one who put suspicion on Portius in the first place. It's basically just throwing away a team member at the start on the off chance that it saves you down the line. Also it's just a dick move?
1
SylandraJoin Queue for Mafia GamesThe Last Mafia Game
I think at this point it is in our best interests for Portius and Silvanus to reveal everything they have.
I disagree. I think if we kill Portius and he's scum we can let Silvanus breathe awhile. But if Portius is town then we give Silvanus full interrogation tomorrow.
This isn't a bad gamble for a day 2 play. It's fantastic odds.
Unless silvanus is throwing Portius under the bus to evade radar.
If @Silvanus is a mafia who is throwing another mafia under the bus? Then thanks, buddy. You put your own team in a worse situation for a play that benefited town way more than you in the long run. I appreciate the pointless Day 2 sacrifice. Would anyone have come for Portius until Silvanus's post? Not really, tbh. It came completely out of nowhere. Portius had literally posted his "I win with Town" post and poofed. What is the goal, if you're a mafia, of choosing to off Portius ASAP when he's your own teammate? I don't buy this argument at all, unless there's a mechanic in play that rewards mafia for eating their own, which I doubt.
"But he's evading his own attention!!" Is he? Isn't it better at that point to die being the suspicious member of the mafia, than to let someone under the radar suffer as a result of your own bad play? Teamwork doesn't work that way. I'm willing to say that Portius and Silvanus are not working together, and if they are working together, it's very very poorly and that's going to bite Silvanus in the ass later.
Usually the odds that a mafia dies on Day 2 are pretty low. Early game is the best time for mafia because town is at its least amount of information. They're an informed minority. Day 2 is about learning how lynches happen as much as it is trying to off a mafia. You learn who is willing to take what bait, and that's useful. That's often all you learn. So why lose that extra day buffer for absolutely no reason?
Worst case scenario, @Silvanus is a paranoid cop, but he himself said he's not an investigator, which leads me to doubt this possibility. Paranoid cops usually think they're reliable investigators, after all. I don't want to know exactly how his power works because if it's repeatable, and it's accurate, then mafia will know how to game it or what to look out for. That information is better kept under wraps. If we find out that information is unreliable, then we can deal with that. For now, let's not feed the mafia information that they might be better off not knowing.
I realize I'm being aggressive, but this is honestly how I'm feeling about today. Maybe @Portius will post an incredible defense of himself. Who knows. But, we don't know if there are safeclaims in play, too. So, again, eh. We'll see I guess.
"Oh yeah, you're a naughty mayor, aren't you? Misfile that Form MA631-D. Comptroller Shevat's got a nice gemstone disc for you, but yer gonna have to beg for it."
On one hand I'm inclined to agree with Portius re: timing, but I know IRL happens and can't fault Silvanus too heavily. It is a juicy piece of info that shouldn't have waited that long imo, but what can you do?
@Silvanus a VERY important question I'd like to ask you: does Portius win with the Fire Nation, or is he just a member?
I'm fine with lynching Por (still salty about the Maeve play), but I want to make sure we're not misunderstanding messages, especially when Shaddus just claimed Fire Nation that turns.
Comments
I am not your investigator, I am not even town. Just a survivor.
It's a name that keeps popping up because Silvanus has a bizarre desire to lynch me. Thus far, it doesn't seem like there are terribly many people who agree with him.
I mean, I can claim if I have to. I'd rather not, seeing as it's day 2. It'd be less than desirable for the town, but not catastrophically so. I think I have enough info in my role to verify myself pretty well, but it'd give info to both the scum and town. Maybe worth it? I'm not sure who would get more value.
But before you decide if I should claim or not, here's my argument as to why it's bad idea:
Silvanus only made this claim after Fal used his power and made it impossible to verify.
Presumably, Silvanus is claiming an investigator role here. There's no other way he could just say that I'm Fire Nation. With this timing, you have to take it on faith. If he had done it before Fal used his power, he could've done something like this:
"Hey, I investigated Portius last night and found out that he was Fire Nation. Lie check this."
Doing that would confirm him and his claim beyond reasonable doubt. It would also let you test Fal by flipping me to verify his truth telling. Outcome, two people more or less confirmed as town, one confirmed as scum. That's about as good as you can get from any power. Much better than a random investigation, which is what happened.
Now, you could make the argument that he was trying to get me lynched without claiming investigator. That's reasonable, and it holds up for about half the day. His voodoo math to direct Fal to lie detect me could have accomplished that if it wasn't such a flimsy argument. But it fell apart well before Fal used his power. Fal even said that he didn't buy it. So Silvanus should've known that it wasn't going to work and just told Fal to check me if that's what he wanted. That outs the same number of people as what he actually did, but provides more information
With all of that, it seems like Silvanus really doesn't want to make a verifiable claim.
There's not actually an argument there. He's just asserting that I'm scum, and admitting that his basis for this is some fairly arbitrary grouping of players with questionable (or at least I think they're questionable) assumptions behind it.
I'm interested in this Silvanus/Portius dynamic though. Is it possible that Silvanus is Azula and willing to throw Portius under the bison to keep her name from suspicion?
Azula was pretty much the antagonist of the series. Why would suggesting her be suspicious?
That said, we probably don't want to get too reliant on the lore. Selenity's pretty clever, and I suspect the roles are built around balance crunch more than lore fluff.
And then when I out myself, you can see those rushing to defend again. Portius wins with the Fire Nation, you do not need a lie detector to be convinced of a Day two reveal by someone who has investigative powers that doesn't read the role sheet.
So I had an image, but I couldn't get it to show up nicely in the preview. Pretend there's a nice picture of Angkor Wat here, with my asserting that it's a visual pun and you can figure out what it means.
It's getting late in my timezone. I might be too sleepy to figure out what you mean here. But that's enough of a persistent problem that I'm starting to assume you're being vague on purpose. So explain this like I'm five:
What is this Day Two reveal by someone who has investigative powers? It can't be Fal, because he revealed on Day One. It can't be Lehki or Shaddus, because while they did sort of reveal their roles (I think we all know who they're implicitly claiming, right?) they aren't claiming investigative powers. You also claimed today, but as a survivor who is explicitly not an investigator. But saying that you don't need a lie detector to be convinced of that reveal makes it sound like you're referring to your reveal. Which was, by your own claim, not done by an investigator. So is that just a weird way of saying that you made observations and drew a conclusion? Or are you actually claiming a power now? Or am I a blind idiot who missed someone claiming investigator?
And who are these people who are rushing to defend me? Since you made your reveal, the closest thing to defending me that I can see is Arix voting for me and then changing his mind and unvoting. You've got Sylandra saying she's open to lynching me, but that's the opposite of defending.
I have no idea what I'm going to contribute at present to the conversation, so this is just me checking in again to confirm I am following along. Will post in the morning after having some coffee and before I have to check in for work.
Ixion tells you, "// I don't think anyone else had a clue, amazing form."
Take a journey with me for a second. We learned a few things today.
1) We don't see whether or not a detected lie is perceived as a lie. Only @Falaeron does.
2) We have @Silvanus declaring that @Portius is officially a mafia, and says he was certain of it last night.
3) We have @Falaeron saying that @Lehki lied about being Team Avatar.
4) We have @Shaddus saying that Lehki's claims match his and that he's inclined to assume @Lehki is third party who becomes town. This matches the way that both Shaddus and Lehki have been posting.
5) @Shaddus has just shared information with @Falaeron via a handshake that only he has seen the result of.
I think Portius is our best bet because it gives us an idea of how much to trust Silvanus. This is valuable info that we don't gain from other lynches right now. It also explains Silvanus's push on Portius which otherwise felt a bit random. I buy that his posts line up with a townie trying to nonchalantly hide his knowledge, then caving and revealing it when town doesn't bite the bait and starts trusting the scumbag.
Meanwhile @Falaeron has an idea now of how much to trust Shaddus from his daypower and as such can use that information to decide if he will trust Lehki. I'm assuming though that power is a tip off towards leaving Lehki alone; otherwise why play it today?
So Portius lynch makes most sense to me.
Vote: Portius
Portius - Silvanus, Sylandra, Lehki (3)
Shaddus - Zitto (1)
Lehki - Falaeron (1)
With 15 alive, it takes 8 to lynch!
This isn't a bad gamble for a day 2 play. It's fantastic odds.
"But he's evading his own attention!!" Is he? Isn't it better at that point to die being the suspicious member of the mafia, than to let someone under the radar suffer as a result of your own bad play? Teamwork doesn't work that way. I'm willing to say that Portius and Silvanus are not working together, and if they are working together, it's very very poorly and that's going to bite Silvanus in the ass later.
Usually the odds that a mafia dies on Day 2 are pretty low. Early game is the best time for mafia because town is at its least amount of information. They're an informed minority. Day 2 is about learning how lynches happen as much as it is trying to off a mafia. You learn who is willing to take what bait, and that's useful. That's often all you learn. So why lose that extra day buffer for absolutely no reason?
Worst case scenario, @Silvanus is a paranoid cop, but he himself said he's not an investigator, which leads me to doubt this possibility. Paranoid cops usually think they're reliable investigators, after all. I don't want to know exactly how his power works because if it's repeatable, and it's accurate, then mafia will know how to game it or what to look out for. That information is better kept under wraps. If we find out that information is unreliable, then we can deal with that. For now, let's not feed the mafia information that they might be better off not knowing.
I realize I'm being aggressive, but this is honestly how I'm feeling about today. Maybe @Portius will post an incredible defense of himself. Who knows. But, we don't know if there are safeclaims in play, too. So, again, eh. We'll see I guess.
On one hand I'm inclined to agree with Portius re: timing, but I know IRL happens and can't fault Silvanus too heavily. It is a juicy piece of info that shouldn't have waited that long imo, but what can you do?
@Silvanus a VERY important question I'd like to ask you: does Portius win with the Fire Nation, or is he just a member?
I'm fine with lynching Por (still salty about the Maeve play), but I want to make sure we're not misunderstanding messages, especially when Shaddus just claimed Fire Nation that turns.
(Also still waiting for Sparky Sparky Boom Man)
Ixion tells you, "// I don't think anyone else had a clue, amazing form."