Yeah, I can only lie-detect posts made on the same day. As Sylandra suggested, I'm just asking people to post now so I can always go back and check at any time if there is a need to later in the day.
One argument against streamlining; There is reason to expect that defeating Fal's ability is possible, at least situationally. If Fal's limited to same-day posts and there's a possibility that some people with those abilities are charge-limited or have a recharge time, we're potentially forcing them to pick and choose when to use their lying powers.
SylandraJoin Queue for Mafia GamesThe Last Mafia Game
(Personally I think it'd be a fun gag if you wound up checking a post besides the win condition posts, hah. Call out some other BS unexpectedly. But that's just what I would do.)
"Oh yeah, you're a naughty mayor, aren't you? Misfile that Form MA631-D. Comptroller Shevat's got a nice gemstone disc for you, but yer gonna have to beg for it."
I also voted for Othero at one point and unvoted once he claimed.
Most people have suggested that those in the middle of the pack will have a higher chance of being a bandwagoner hoping to sneak by without getting noticed. I agree with that statement though the list Sylandra made is in the wrong order.
Sylandra, Eldanien, Falaeron, Arix, Phoebus, Portius, Zitto, (Othero pt1), Silvanus, Yomoigu, Lehki, Tremula, Breandryn, (Othero pt2), Fyler, Shaddus and shenanigans, Czixi - TOWN by E^2****
I am of the opinion that anyone from Eevee^2's claim and on would be considered bandwagoning along to sneak by. Breaking up the stages of the claim in between Othero shenanigans helps sort out when it is best to feel safe, though timestamps are lost because there was a flurry of activity after the post.
I mention this ion because I can beat this lie detector and wasn't sure how it worked at first, so I jumped in the bandwagon myself in hopes I didn't have to prove it day 1. If the town wants to test that, I would be more than happy to do so but I do not think we should waste the power in the limited amount of time we have.
Back onto our list of liars, the people that raised a stink with Falmiis are: Arix, Zitto, Fyler, Othero (and Shaddus sort of). My opinion is that more of these people from the list are town than they are mafia. It was a really weird Day 1 move and I feel that resistant to going along with everyone is more of a town play, because it is an easy way to draw attention to yourself.
The best way to avoid detection was to post after someone raised suspicion or to post along a bandwagon, of those that fit that category but not the above category, and are not dead, are: Portius, Yomoigu, Lehki, Tremula, Breandryn and myself.
It almost is never in the Mafia's best interest to No Lynch on Day 1, from thousands of simulations to repeated studies of forum mafia games, mafia wins more often than not with day one lynches. Back onto those that were voting for Othero as well as in the middle of the pack and after bandwagons or stupid plays we have:
Portius, Yomoigu and myself.
Those that kept their vote on Othero:
Yomoigu and Portius
Both of them have kept a very low profile, both jumped on the train for Othero, both haven't provided much in responses to others, though Portius more than Yomoigu. However, Yomoigu has given some more insight into their role, just by saying the "weird role" thing. It is for that inclination, I am willing to:
Vote Portius
I would also be willing to switch my Vote to Yomoigu. I would also like to Lie Detector Vote Portius, second Yomoigu, if you are taking those votes into consideration.
2014/04/19 01:38:01 - Leolamins drained 2000000 power to raise Silvanus as a Vernal Ascendant.
2014/07/23 05:01:29 - Silvanus drained 2000000 power to raise Munsia as a Vernal Ascendant.
2015/05/24 06:03:07 - Silvanus drained 2000000 power to raise Arimisia as a Vernal Ascendant.
2015/05/24 06:03:58 - Silvanus drained 2000000 power to raise Lavinya as a Vernal Ascendant.
SylandraJoin Queue for Mafia GamesThe Last Mafia Game
I'll buy what Silvanus is selling and Vote Portius. Mostly to force some activity from him. I know he's on the forums.
Regarding my list, I wrote in order of who did the post exactly as Falaeron demanded it ("Just the post nothing else"). @Silvanus did it in terms of who complied first. So we're both right, but your list might be more useful in terms of gauging player emotional reactions.
"Oh yeah, you're a naughty mayor, aren't you? Misfile that Form MA631-D. Comptroller Shevat's got a nice gemstone disc for you, but yer gonna have to beg for it."
I may be a bad example, any posts I make during the week are subject to bring posted at odd work break times. You can certainly include me, but I tend to make snap decisions when I only have a ten minute window to read, process, and respond while being social at the gazebo.
As such, I can't see who's online and when from mobile, so will have to trust Sylandra's claim. Obligatory defence of e-husband is that he usually takes a long time to think and give meaningful contributions. I have no strong suspicions, yet, but I'll admit I'm thrown for a loop with the inclusion of Appa.
I'll buy what Silvanus is selling and Vote Portius. Mostly to force some activity from him. I know he's on the forums.
Is there some specific activity in particular you want from me? I assume you're not asking me to claim on day two.
I try not to say things unless I think I have something useful to add. So I pointed out why I think Fal's move wasn't as bad as people seemed to think, but I'm not an investigator, so I don't think I really have anything to add to the analysis. Which I think is borne out fairly well by how I've done things in past games, too.
I guess there's Silvanus' thing. I do think his reasoning is pretty suspect. Trying to anything out of vote order is usually a WIFOM situation, in that if popular wisdom says that scum want to be in the middle, people will look at the middle, so they actually want to be on either end. Knowing that, town wants to look at the ends, which pushes them towards the middle. And so on.
Also trying to work out why a townie would ever want to be immune to lie detectors, which he has claimed. On the other hand, I'm also having a hard time working out why a scum would want to claim an immunity like that. So I'm mostly just confused by that claim and not knowing what to make of it, cause I think having or claiming that is weird for any alignment. Haven't worked through it yet.
Any sufficiently advanced pun is indistinguishable from comedy.
If you are targeted by a lie detector, does that return a result that says you're immune, or one that says whatever you said is true? I assumed it would just confirm your statements as true, but that's inconsistent with your offer to get verified, because in that case the immunity would block the verification. Both outcomes call for fairly different plays, so I'd like to know before I start working through the possibilities.
Any sufficiently advanced pun is indistinguishable from comedy.
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SylandraJoin Queue for Mafia GamesThe Last Mafia Game
If you are targeted by a lie detector, does that return a result that says you're immune, or one that says whatever you said is true? I assumed it would just confirm your statements as true, but that's inconsistent with your offer to get verified, because in that case the immunity would block the verification. Both outcomes call for fairly different plays, so I'd like to know before I start working through the possibilities.
That's worth bringing up, actually. We need clarification on those points re: Silvanus's supposed "lie immunity."
Care to enlighten us, @Silvanus? Gonna unvote for more time to discuss this, and as a thank you to Portius for responding.
"Oh yeah, you're a naughty mayor, aren't you? Misfile that Form MA631-D. Comptroller Shevat's got a nice gemstone disc for you, but yer gonna have to beg for it."
Everiine said: The reason population is low isn't because there are too many orgs. It's because so many facets of the game are outright broken and protected by those who benefit from it being that way. An overabundance of gimmicks (including game-breaking ones), artifacts that destroy any concept of balance, blatant pay-to-win features, and an obsession with convenience that makes few things actually worthwhile all contribute to the game's sad decline.
Regarding my later posting on day 1, I was initially happy to go along with it and was ready to post, but as I read the rest of the thread I saw concerns and objections and the train so I waited to see what would happen, in case it was a trick like arson as was suggested. That fizzled with more definite info from Falaeron, so I then posted.
First, he posts the usual strong and reasonable statement against day one lynches referencing raw odds and lack of information, followed by a more recent post acknowledging that a lack of day one lynch is generally in mafia's favor in terms of outcome probabilities (which I assume most players know about due to the ongoing day one lynch controversy). This suggests he's driven by a target goal rather than arguments compelling him one way or another - the argument obviously has no meaning to him if he's willing to play both sides as needed to validate his assertions.
I'm sure I can think of reasons why a member of the Gaang might be able to fool a lie detector. But I have a hard time imagining a member of Town needing the ability to avoid lie detection when it seems REALLY unlikely that Mafia would have (or truly need) a lie detector: they already have the information advantage and a town is not as prone to lying as mafia.
First, he posts the usual strong and reasonable statement against day one lynches referencing raw odds and lack of information, followed by a more recent post acknowledging that a lack of day one lynch is generally in mafia's favor in terms of outcome probabilities (which I assume most players know about due to the ongoing day one lynch controversy). This suggests he's driven by a target goal rather than arguments compelling him one way or another - the argument obviously has no meaning to him if he's willing to play both sides as needed to validate his assertions.
One of us misread something because he's definately still saying Mafia is better off with lynch than no lynch
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SylandraJoin Queue for Mafia GamesThe Last Mafia Game
"Oh yeah, you're a naughty mayor, aren't you? Misfile that Form MA631-D. Comptroller Shevat's got a nice gemstone disc for you, but yer gonna have to beg for it."
It'd be a little weird for Silvanus to be Azula and admit to being lie detector immune after someone posted pictures of Toph and Azula as evidence of a lie detector being a possibility.
So, I doubt he's Azula.
Known Aliases: Celina/Cyndarin/Fire Jesus/The Night/That Bitch who griefed us
Ok I have a question about the show: were there people who could throw lightning? Because the kill message on Appa, dendritic scorch marks, sounds more like lightning than fire
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SylandraJoin Queue for Mafia GamesThe Last Mafia Game
Ok I have a question about the show: were there people who could throw lightning? Because the kill message on Appa, dendritic scorch marks, sounds more like lightning than fire
"Oh yeah, you're a naughty mayor, aren't you? Misfile that Form MA631-D. Comptroller Shevat's got a nice gemstone disc for you, but yer gonna have to beg for it."
I am not lie detector immune but the question "I win with team avatar" can be countered and I can beat that line of questioning, I never said I was immune, my statements were "I could easily counter his lie detector and I'm not the person that Tremula referred to," and the statement above "I mention this (only) because I can beat this lie detector and wasn't sure how it worked at first."
I can beat the lie detector because of the way the statements are phrased. A better statement than asking a win condition might be:
I am not a member of the Fire Nation.
I do not have a Night Kill Ability or any anti-town ability.
For clarification, I was in favor of no lynching day one, it is never in our best interest to vote with no information. The mafia always wants to kill, that is their goal. Going into Day two, it is possible to gain information and you can look at the vote trains to establish patterns. From here on out, it is in our best interest to be lynching.
My vote will remain on Portius.
2014/04/19 01:38:01 - Leolamins drained 2000000 power to raise Silvanus as a Vernal Ascendant.
2014/07/23 05:01:29 - Silvanus drained 2000000 power to raise Munsia as a Vernal Ascendant.
2015/05/24 06:03:07 - Silvanus drained 2000000 power to raise Arimisia as a Vernal Ascendant.
2015/05/24 06:03:58 - Silvanus drained 2000000 power to raise Lavinya as a Vernal Ascendant.
One of us misread something because he's definately still saying Mafia is better off with lynch than no lynch
Thank you, I see now I was misreading his statement. It's odd in that I had JUST done some websearching on day one lynch statistics and the more convincing information I found was pro-lynch. I saw the statement I expected to see.
I don't want to derail this line of discussion, but I do have something I want to bring up related to the responses we've seen for the lie detector. I will wait until tomorrow so as not to interrupt Silvanus' reasoning here.
Overall, I find the argument pretty thin but don't see much else we have to go on. I was hoping we'd have some insight after the first night. In the interest of adding a little pressure, I am very tentatively willing to
Vote Portius
but I will unvote if we get into sniping range without further discussion.
Comments
If Fal's limited to same-day posts and there's a possibility that some people with those abilities are charge-limited or have a recharge time, we're potentially forcing them to pick and choose when to use their lying powers.
I win with team avatar
Regarding my list, I wrote in order of who did the post exactly as Falaeron demanded it ("Just the post nothing else"). @Silvanus did it in terms of who complied first. So we're both right, but your list might be more useful in terms of gauging player emotional reactions.
As such, I can't see who's online and when from mobile, so will have to trust Sylandra's claim. Obligatory defence of e-husband is that he usually takes a long time to think and give meaningful contributions. I have no strong suspicions, yet, but I'll admit I'm thrown for a loop with the inclusion of Appa.
Ixion tells you, "// I don't think anyone else had a clue, amazing form."
Is there some specific activity in particular you want from me? I assume you're not asking me to claim on day two.
I try not to say things unless I think I have something useful to add. So I pointed out why I think Fal's move wasn't as bad as people seemed to think, but I'm not an investigator, so I don't think I really have anything to add to the analysis. Which I think is borne out fairly well by how I've done things in past games, too.
I guess there's Silvanus' thing. I do think his reasoning is pretty suspect. Trying to anything out of vote order is usually a WIFOM situation, in that if popular wisdom says that scum want to be in the middle, people will look at the middle, so they actually want to be on either end. Knowing that, town wants to look at the ends, which pushes them towards the middle. And so on.
Also trying to work out why a townie would ever want to be immune to lie detectors, which he has claimed. On the other hand, I'm also having a hard time working out why a scum would want to claim an immunity like that. So I'm mostly just confused by that claim and not knowing what to make of it, cause I think having or claiming that is weird for any alignment. Haven't worked through it yet.
If you are targeted by a lie detector, does that return a result that says you're immune, or one that says whatever you said is true? I assumed it would just confirm your statements as true, but that's inconsistent with your offer to get verified, because in that case the immunity would block the verification. Both outcomes call for fairly different plays, so I'd like to know before I start working through the possibilities.
Care to enlighten us, @Silvanus? Gonna unvote for more time to discuss this, and as a thank you to Portius for responding.
First, he posts the usual strong and reasonable statement against day one lynches referencing raw odds and lack of information, followed by a more recent post acknowledging that a lack of day one lynch is generally in mafia's favor in terms of outcome probabilities (which I assume most players know about due to the ongoing day one lynch controversy). This suggests he's driven by a target goal rather than arguments compelling him one way or another - the argument obviously has no meaning to him if he's willing to play both sides as needed to validate his assertions.
I'm sure I can think of reasons why a member of the Gaang might be able to fool a lie detector. But I have a hard time imagining a member of Town needing the ability to avoid lie detection when it seems REALLY unlikely that Mafia would have (or truly need) a lie detector: they already have the information advantage and a town is not as prone to lying as mafia.
Portius - Silvanus (1)
With 15 alive, it takes 8 to lynch!
One of us misread something because he's definately still saying Mafia is better off with lynch than no lynch
So, I doubt he's Azula.
Ixion tells you, "// I don't think anyone else had a clue, amazing form."
I can beat the lie detector because of the way the statements are phrased. A better statement than asking a win condition might be:
I am not a member of the Fire Nation.
I do not have a Night Kill Ability or any anti-town ability.
For clarification, I was in favor of no lynching day one, it is never in our best interest to vote with no information. The mafia always wants to kill, that is their goal. Going into Day two, it is possible to gain information and you can look at the vote trains to establish patterns. From here on out, it is in our best interest to be lynching.
My vote will remain on Portius.
Overall, I find the argument pretty thin but don't see much else we have to go on. I was hoping we'd have some insight after the first night. In the interest of adding a little pressure, I am very tentatively willing to
Vote Portius
but I will unvote if we get into sniping range without further discussion.