Wouldn't it make sense to not vote me and have our lie detector use their ability on me next day phase? I'll post whatever you want for that. But you obviously have faith in the ability so why not wait?
I will go into details further in another post why I prefer No Lynch on Day 1 with the exception of bad plays. Now, some of you will argue Othero has done some bad playing on Day 1, and I will agree, but he has also hasn't revealed anything important and hasn't done anywhere near as much damage against Town as Falmiis has. Falmiis has made 3 huge mistakes on Day 1 and we are about to punish Othero for it.
1. Falmiis alerted everyone to a Lie Detector being in the game.
2. Falmiis revealed his name after only the 2nd vote placed against him, and also revealed that he may be unkillable.
3. Falmiis used his power early.
1 and 2 have been gone over before, but Falmiis has made another third mistake. We could've built a lynch train on anyone not willing to say the phrase before Falmiis used his power, and threaten them with a Lynching if they didn't comply. When they say the phrase, we move onto the next person until everyone has done it, and then we let Falmiis pick the person he wants to say the phrase.
But he wasted it on some arbitrary reason that could be explained as easily by timezones, and we all have gone ahead and ignored his mistakes. I'm not saying lynch Falmiis, it would be stupid to lynch a member of Town that seems fairly obvious and is on a short list of possible characters. He simply has just been playing far worse and we are going to punish Othero for it, and made Othero reveal who he possible is without any need.
The town can not afford to risk anymore revealings today, if Othero is town, we can't take that risk because Falmiis revealed himself Day 1. We have already given too much information to the mafia for a Day 1 and I urge everyone to not reveal anymore.
2014/04/19 01:38:01 - Leolamins drained 2000000 power to raise Silvanus as a Vernal Ascendant.
2014/07/23 05:01:29 - Silvanus drained 2000000 power to raise Munsia as a Vernal Ascendant.
2015/05/24 06:03:07 - Silvanus drained 2000000 power to raise Arimisia as a Vernal Ascendant.
2015/05/24 06:03:58 - Silvanus drained 2000000 power to raise Lavinya as a Vernal Ascendant.
I still think it's dumb to vote for someone solely because they didn't play along with a request for a specific action before the power was even verified to exist.
I feel like Othero's hedgy position and grudging cave-in is pretty scummy, but I don't want to snipe when it looks like people still have things to say. I will wait to hear what Silvanus and Trem are thinking or until tomorrow after work, whichever comes first.
Also, not relevant to the game itself, but flagging Selenity's vote-count as off-topic is really not a classy look. Hopefully that was a misclick and not spite about the vote count.
Sorry, breaking up my post so I can make my dinner while hopefully not getting ninja'd before I've put down my thoughts.
My reasons for No Lynch:
1. On Day 1, you have no information (exception maybe two of you now) whatsoever. You also, by odds, have the lowest chance to select a mafia member. No reasonable gambler would bet on Day 1, especially when members of the game can be given inside information.
-The counter argument to this is always "lynching is the best source of information for town," which is true, but it is also the best source of information for mafia. They also have better odds of picking out a town and they have an easier chance to bandwagon to swing the vote . But more importantly:
2. Mafia is a race against the Clock, the minutes in this scenario are the people. If we never lynch anyone, assuming the highest percentage of mafia members (33% is highest), which is 5/16, gives us 6 nights before the mafia have a majority, this is also assuming mafia have 1 kill a night.
If we lynch a town on Day 1, and they kill a Town member night 1 (worst case scenario) we will be looking at 5/14, and are now down to 4 days. The town will suffer a 2 day swing on any misfire lynch. The Town has the least amount of information on Day 1. The town has the worst odds on Day 1.
I simply can't agree to a Day 1 lynch.
Now I am not saying Day 1s should be thrown away, they should be used productively and not to reveal too much information while gathering early scum tells. What has gone on Day 1 between Othero and Falmiis is not scummish, but rather bad play.
2014/04/19 01:38:01 - Leolamins drained 2000000 power to raise Silvanus as a Vernal Ascendant.
2014/07/23 05:01:29 - Silvanus drained 2000000 power to raise Munsia as a Vernal Ascendant.
2015/05/24 06:03:07 - Silvanus drained 2000000 power to raise Arimisia as a Vernal Ascendant.
2015/05/24 06:03:58 - Silvanus drained 2000000 power to raise Lavinya as a Vernal Ascendant.
Also, I really think that actually claiming lie detector day 1 was a terrible move. Now scum is going to be extra careful not to trap themselves. Instead of saving it to check a sketchy roleclaim later, we've got whatever this is.
I also think that if you were going to check someone, a person in the middle of the pack would've been the best chance of hitting a liar. Of course scum is going to realize if they don't post the thing early, they're going to look bad. And since everyone is doing it, the odds they're going to be the one chosen would end up about the same odds as their just being randomly lynched day one anyway.
I feel like Othero's hedgy position and grudging cave-in is pretty scummy, but I don't want to snipe when it looks like people still have things to say. I will wait to hear what Silvanus and Trem are thinking or until tomorrow after work, whichever comes first.
Also, not relevant to the game itself, but flagging Selenity's vote-count as off-topic is really not a classy look. Hopefully that was a misclick and not spite about the vote count.
Yeah, that was apparently a misclick while scrolling on my phone while doing some work. But nice eagle eye?
Czixi had a chance to posting the phrase but she ended up not saying it and then presumably went to bed. I didn't buy her reason for not posting the phrase when she had the chance to.
I don't know, I've been thinking about it since I voted.
I mean, it's less about his commitment to not cooperate and more his lack of commitment to not cooperate. It was a half assed "fine I'll do it, but not really," which begs the question why even bother. He acquiesced to the pressure and said he was with town, but when prompted to go all the way and post it as a single comment, he refused. Why? I honestly don't know the answer, he's either committed to cooperating or he's not. IIt bothers me because his words went one direction, but his actions went another and the position he chose to put himself in was completely contradictory and nonsensical. As if he realized not cooperating made him look suspicious, but just tossing his position away entirely and going along with the plan after the fact also didn't lend him any credibility. So he chose to toe the line.
All that being said, ultimately it's forgivable at the moment. Weird behavior, like we saw from Espeon, can illicit weird reactions. HOWEVER, Othero then kept going with this weirdo explanation. That his refusal to cooperate was, apparently, not about his inherent suspicion of Glaceon's behavior he had been arguing, rather it was really just Othero's ploy in order to make everyone play more aggressively? It feels like he was called out on toeing the line in a way that made no sense whatsoever, so he came up with an explanation that would justify it. It feels like a house of cards, none of the explanations make any sense, and they're stacked rather precariously.
Known Aliases: Celina/Cyndarin/Fire Jesus/The Night/That Bitch who griefed us
So there are a few reasons why I don't think what I did was wrong at all. 1) I am immune at night. 2) My power is visible when used. 3) My power can be used up to once a day. 4) I have a strong claim in Toph.
Because of point 1, I am able to reveal myself early while feeling fairly safe in both power claiming and name claiming. If there's a strongman and I die at night then at least we know. If I die during the day, chances are it'll also be visible so we'll know who to lynch next.
Because of point 2, I need to be open about what my power does. If I randomly came in and used my power on someone you'd all be asking me what I was doing. By being open about it there is no need to go through that song and dance.
Because of point 3, if I wanted to use the power on day one I had to act. Day ones here are notorious for dragging on without any real info coming out unless someone throws a curveball like I have here. If I hadn't revealed my power chances were that I wouldn't have been able to use it on an unambiguous post at all.
Because of point 4, and partially because of point 2, I believe that it would be very hard to not trust my claim, which eliminates one of the biggest risks of claiming, which is that town might not believe you even if the claim is truthful.
You can say 'bad play' all you want, but from my perspective I made the most out of my power, not only being able to verify Czixi's post, but also being able to see how everyone else reacted while still feeling comfortably safe due to my night immunity. Given all of the information I had revealed, Othero's reaction is what sticked out the most for me.
Yeah I gotta agree on no lynch today. I'm not convinced Othero is town but this really isn't enough to lynch on yet, I think. Lynches and lynches train will tell us more after first day.
Vote: None
There were definitely a lot better, safer ways to have used lied detector, but this what we got now. Eeveelution sorta claims some kind of safety at night, so I'd say don't bother protecting him for now, and if he dies that's on him for early reveal.
I suppose I could forgive Othero due to what he had to go through last game and the weird role I had given him. Irregular behavior on Day 1 is not worthy of a lynch on Day 1, the risk is not worth it. And his irregular behavior was in response to the stupidity of someone else.
At least Othero did toe the line. Can Jolteon fact check that same statement tomorrow? What reasoning did anyone have to presume to follow along when no pressure was given? Eevee^2 wasted our chance to use his power, he didn't toe the line nor has helped town. Also, I didn't think it would need to be a separate post like he asked and figured Othero's was fine, you can easily take out the statement and quote it.
We could've used his power as a threat of force to get some information, but instead we got irregular behavior and battle lines drawn on day 1. If the town feels like taking the worst odds because of weirdness and stupidity, that's a choice I will not follow along with at all.
Whatever we do day 1, no one else shouldreveal anything.
Zitto: Yes.
2014/04/19 01:38:01 - Leolamins drained 2000000 power to raise Silvanus as a Vernal Ascendant.
2014/07/23 05:01:29 - Silvanus drained 2000000 power to raise Munsia as a Vernal Ascendant.
2015/05/24 06:03:07 - Silvanus drained 2000000 power to raise Arimisia as a Vernal Ascendant.
2015/05/24 06:03:58 - Silvanus drained 2000000 power to raise Lavinya as a Vernal Ascendant.
You have your role and you made your judgement, perhaps in time you will be right. My belief is there could have been a better approach with the information you have given, and jumping on the Czixi before working with the town to put pressure with threat of force was not a Town move, but a selfish move.
To me, that's a bad play. I don't want to reward bad play by taking an unnecessary risk.
2014/04/19 01:38:01 - Leolamins drained 2000000 power to raise Silvanus as a Vernal Ascendant.
2014/07/23 05:01:29 - Silvanus drained 2000000 power to raise Munsia as a Vernal Ascendant.
2015/05/24 06:03:07 - Silvanus drained 2000000 power to raise Arimisia as a Vernal Ascendant.
2015/05/24 06:03:58 - Silvanus drained 2000000 power to raise Lavinya as a Vernal Ascendant.
For that specific claim, I think Fal's actions were pretty reasonable. It'd be dumb without some sort of reliable night defense, but if he has that, it's pretty decent. Used as it is, it's functionally a day investigator.
Which is actually a little bit better than a normal investigator in this context. We all saw it happen, we all saw fluff text that was consistent with Toph. I'm not an avatar expert, so maybe there's some other role that could get similar text, but I can't think of any. So it strongly nods towards trusting Fal. Especially because scum would have to be insane to claim a major character like Toph unless they got it as a safe claim. Which seems unlikely, since that would require a major character to not be in the game.
And honestly, Fal needs needs something like this to make his claim believable. Night-immune lie detector is practically the holy grail of powers. I would not believe it was in play at all without some evidence, and this kind of play supports it. Doesn't prove it, but supports it. If he had sprung a claim like that a few turns in as a response to pressure, I'd lynch it as a desperation claim.
All in all, I'm not sure if it's the optimal choice. It does give up the element of surprise. But it investigates early, provides evidence that makes it easy to believe, and puts the scum in a delicate position of weighing the benefits of burning a strongarm, risking a non-strongarm kill
Any sufficiently advanced pun is indistinguishable from comedy.
...or not killing him and trying to work around a lie detector, which is at worst a day investigator that might have some people immune to it. Unless I'm being dumb and missing something?
Post separated because I had two windows open and posted the one with an old, autosaved draft in it that was missing the ending.
Any sufficiently advanced pun is indistinguishable from comedy.
I 100% completely trust that E^2 is a lie detector and that he is telling the truth. Regardless if he is telling the truth, I will the play the odds if they are favorable but not at this rate. It never favors town to lynch day 1, especially in a game that involves powers.
I really don't care what someone says day one outside of somehow getting themselves to out their mafia role, being dodgy and avoiding the shepherding along on day 1 is completely normal. We shouldn't lynch someone because of that. Putting pressure on them to see how they respond is a good strategy.
Lynching is not.
We have gathered enough information today. Probably too much. Let us move on without taking anymore risks, the risk is not worth it chance wise.
2014/04/19 01:38:01 - Leolamins drained 2000000 power to raise Silvanus as a Vernal Ascendant.
2014/07/23 05:01:29 - Silvanus drained 2000000 power to raise Munsia as a Vernal Ascendant.
2015/05/24 06:03:07 - Silvanus drained 2000000 power to raise Arimisia as a Vernal Ascendant.
2015/05/24 06:03:58 - Silvanus drained 2000000 power to raise Lavinya as a Vernal Ascendant.
An avatar team member that's immune to night kills? I'm not sure I believe that.
Everiine said: The reason population is low isn't because there are too many orgs. It's because so many facets of the game are outright broken and protected by those who benefit from it being that way. An overabundance of gimmicks (including game-breaking ones), artifacts that destroy any concept of balance, blatant pay-to-win features, and an obsession with convenience that makes few things actually worthwhile all contribute to the game's sad decline.
Also, we might ponder the idea that Czixi went ahead and claimed because she is immune to the lie detector.
Everiine said: The reason population is low isn't because there are too many orgs. It's because so many facets of the game are outright broken and protected by those who benefit from it being that way. An overabundance of gimmicks (including game-breaking ones), artifacts that destroy any concept of balance, blatant pay-to-win features, and an obsession with convenience that makes few things actually worthwhile all contribute to the game's sad decline.
True, but her slowness to post it could have been because she had to check in with Selenity to make sure it would work. I'm just saying that we shouldn't trust the power 100%
Everiine said: The reason population is low isn't because there are too many orgs. It's because so many facets of the game are outright broken and protected by those who benefit from it being that way. An overabundance of gimmicks (including game-breaking ones), artifacts that destroy any concept of balance, blatant pay-to-win features, and an obsession with convenience that makes few things actually worthwhile all contribute to the game's sad decline.
Comments
Ixion tells you, "// I don't think anyone else had a clue, amazing form."
Vote Count for Day One (ends May 14th at 11:59 PM EST)
None - Arix, Othero (2)
Othero - Falaeron, Shaddus, Czixi, Fyler, Portius, Sylandra, Yomoigu (7)
With 16 alive, it takes 9 to lynch!
I will have a longer post once I get to a computer if the day makes it there, not in defense of Othero but a different alternative.
I will go into details further in another post why I prefer No Lynch on Day 1 with the exception of bad plays. Now, some of you will argue Othero has done some bad playing on Day 1, and I will agree, but he has also hasn't revealed anything important and hasn't done anywhere near as much damage against Town as Falmiis has. Falmiis has made 3 huge mistakes on Day 1 and we are about to punish Othero for it.
1. Falmiis alerted everyone to a Lie Detector being in the game.
2. Falmiis revealed his name after only the 2nd vote placed against him, and also revealed that he may be unkillable.
3. Falmiis used his power early.
1 and 2 have been gone over before, but Falmiis has made another third mistake. We could've built a lynch train on anyone not willing to say the phrase before Falmiis used his power, and threaten them with a Lynching if they didn't comply. When they say the phrase, we move onto the next person until everyone has done it, and then we let Falmiis pick the person he wants to say the phrase.
But he wasted it on some arbitrary reason that could be explained as easily by timezones, and we all have gone ahead and ignored his mistakes. I'm not saying lynch Falmiis, it would be stupid to lynch a member of Town that seems fairly obvious and is on a short list of possible characters. He simply has just been playing far worse and we are going to punish Othero for it, and made Othero reveal who he possible is without any need.
The town can not afford to risk anymore revealings today, if Othero is town, we can't take that risk because Falmiis revealed himself Day 1. We have already given too much information to the mafia for a Day 1 and I urge everyone to not reveal anymore.
Also, not relevant to the game itself, but flagging Selenity's vote-count as off-topic is really not a classy look. Hopefully that was a misclick and not spite about the vote count.
My reasons for No Lynch:
1. On Day 1, you have no information (exception maybe two of you now) whatsoever. You also, by odds, have the lowest chance to select a mafia member. No reasonable gambler would bet on Day 1, especially when members of the game can be given inside information.
-The counter argument to this is always "lynching is the best source of information for town," which is true, but it is also the best source of information for mafia. They also have better odds of picking out a town and they have an easier chance to bandwagon to swing the vote . But more importantly:
2. Mafia is a race against the Clock, the minutes in this scenario are the people. If we never lynch anyone, assuming the highest percentage of mafia members (33% is highest), which is 5/16, gives us 6 nights before the mafia have a majority, this is also assuming mafia have 1 kill a night.
If we lynch a town on Day 1, and they kill a Town member night 1 (worst case scenario) we will be looking at 5/14, and are now down to 4 days. The town will suffer a 2 day swing on any misfire lynch. The Town has the least amount of information on Day 1. The town has the worst odds on Day 1.
I simply can't agree to a Day 1 lynch.
Now I am not saying Day 1s should be thrown away, they should be used productively and not to reveal too much information while gathering early scum tells. What has gone on Day 1 between Othero and Falmiis is not scummish, but rather bad play.
I also think that if you were going to check someone, a person in the middle of the pack would've been the best chance of hitting a liar. Of course scum is going to realize if they don't post the thing early, they're going to look bad. And since everyone is doing it, the odds they're going to be the one chosen would end up about the same odds as their just being randomly lynched day one anyway.
I mean, it's less about his commitment to not cooperate and more his lack of commitment to not cooperate. It was a half assed "fine I'll do it, but not really," which begs the question why even bother. He acquiesced to the pressure and said he was with town, but when prompted to go all the way and post it as a single comment, he refused. Why? I honestly don't know the answer, he's either committed to cooperating or he's not.
IIt bothers me because his words went one direction, but his actions went another and the position he chose to put himself in was completely contradictory and nonsensical. As if he realized not cooperating made him look suspicious, but just tossing his position away entirely and going along with the plan after the fact also didn't lend him any credibility.
So he chose to toe the line.
All that being said, ultimately it's forgivable at the moment. Weird behavior, like we saw from Espeon, can illicit weird reactions. HOWEVER, Othero then kept going with this weirdo explanation. That his refusal to cooperate was, apparently, not about his inherent suspicion of Glaceon's behavior he had been arguing, rather it was really just Othero's ploy in order to make everyone play more aggressively? It feels like he was called out on toeing the line in a way that made no sense whatsoever, so he came up with an explanation that would justify it. It feels like a house of cards, none of the explanations make any sense, and they're stacked rather precariously.
1) I am immune at night.
2) My power is visible when used.
3) My power can be used up to once a day.
4) I have a strong claim in Toph.
Because of point 1, I am able to reveal myself early while feeling fairly safe in both power claiming and name claiming. If there's a strongman and I die at night then at least we know. If I die during the day, chances are it'll also be visible so we'll know who to lynch next.
Because of point 2, I need to be open about what my power does. If I randomly came in and used my power on someone you'd all be asking me what I was doing. By being open about it there is no need to go through that song and dance.
Because of point 3, if I wanted to use the power on day one I had to act. Day ones here are notorious for dragging on without any real info coming out unless someone throws a curveball like I have here. If I hadn't revealed my power chances were that I wouldn't have been able to use it on an unambiguous post at all.
Because of point 4, and partially because of point 2, I believe that it would be very hard to not trust my claim, which eliminates one of the biggest risks of claiming, which is that town might not believe you even if the claim is truthful.
You can say 'bad play' all you want, but from my perspective I made the most out of my power, not only being able to verify Czixi's post, but also being able to see how everyone else reacted while still feeling comfortably safe due to my night immunity. Given all of the information I had revealed, Othero's reaction is what sticked out the most for me.
Vote: None
There were definitely a lot better, safer ways to have used lied detector, but this what we got now. Eeveelution sorta claims some kind of safety at night, so I'd say don't bother protecting him for now, and if he dies that's on him for early reveal.
At least Othero did toe the line. Can Jolteon fact check that same statement tomorrow? What reasoning did anyone have to presume to follow along when no pressure was given? Eevee^2 wasted our chance to use his power, he didn't toe the line nor has helped town. Also, I didn't think it would need to be a separate post like he asked and figured Othero's was fine, you can easily take out the statement and quote it.
We could've used his power as a threat of force to get some information, but instead we got irregular behavior and battle lines drawn on day 1. If the town feels like taking the worst odds because of weirdness and stupidity, that's a choice I will not follow along with at all.
Whatever we do day 1, no one else shouldreveal anything.
Zitto: Yes.
You have your role and you made your judgement, perhaps in time you will be right. My belief is there could have been a better approach with the information you have given, and jumping on the Czixi before working with the town to put pressure with threat of force was not a Town move, but a selfish move.
To me, that's a bad play. I don't want to reward bad play by taking an unnecessary risk.
Which is actually a little bit better than a normal investigator in this context. We all saw it happen, we all saw fluff text that was consistent with Toph. I'm not an avatar expert, so maybe there's some other role that could get similar text, but I can't think of any. So it strongly nods towards trusting Fal. Especially because scum would have to be insane to claim a major character like Toph unless they got it as a safe claim. Which seems unlikely, since that would require a major character to not be in the game.
And honestly, Fal needs needs something like this to make his claim believable. Night-immune lie detector is practically the holy grail of powers. I would not believe it was in play at all without some evidence, and this kind of play supports it. Doesn't prove it, but supports it. If he had sprung a claim like that a few turns in as a response to pressure, I'd lynch it as a desperation claim.
All in all, I'm not sure if it's the optimal choice. It does give up the element of surprise. But it investigates early, provides evidence that makes it easy to believe, and puts the scum in a delicate position of weighing the benefits of burning a strongarm, risking a non-strongarm kill
Post separated because I had two windows open and posted the one with an old, autosaved draft in it that was missing the ending.
I really don't care what someone says day one outside of somehow getting themselves to out their mafia role, being dodgy and avoiding the shepherding along on day 1 is completely normal. We shouldn't lynch someone because of that. Putting pressure on them to see how they respond is a good strategy.
Lynching is not.
We have gathered enough information today. Probably too much. Let us move on without taking anymore risks, the risk is not worth it chance wise.
True, but her slowness to post it could have been because she had to check in with Selenity to make sure it would work. I'm just saying that we shouldn't trust the power 100%