I'd agree that if the rest of us are to take silent arsonist seriously, Falmiis really does need to consider revealing more about his ability that suggests there's one in play.
Before the 'I have an ability that suggests there's arsonist' reveal, he did propose that arsonist fit the flavour of the game, but the shrine explosion has been attributed to Pollux, and Tamashi's role sheet shows saboteur role with no mention of arson, and immunity to danmaku rather than arson eliminations, so flavour points in favour of arson have been weakened somewhat.
Granted, it still remains a reasonable explanation for the lack of deaths, and I guess an arson-like power might have been one of the scrubbed details from Tamashi's role.. But if true, finding a silent arsonist is hella rough for town.
Honestly, I just find it hard to believe we would get no indication of being primed. Yeah, Kira said we'd only get information if it can affect our decisions, but at this point it kinda can.
but being that Falmiis hasn't (and doesn't seem to want to) bring more information about potential arsonists, I think we need to pressure him a bit more. Town wins by information, the more explicit the better. Vague suggestions without any back up don't help us, and if anything, only obfuscate things.
I want to talk about Tamashi's plethora of abilities. I'm going to assume that there were 6 separate abilities/immunities, based on the spacing around that 3rd "Details have been scrubbed". 1) Conversion allowed for the recruitment of 2 people who were eligible. I'm going to assume that what was scrubbed was what made someone ineligible. Also, probably something about the cult not allowed to kill the night they convert. 2) Investigation allowed him to see who people are, with caveats that were scrubbed. Probably what information exactly he received. 3) The entire third ability was scrubbed, which means that Tamashi never mentioned it (I'm going to assume that it was night elimination immunity, since they may not want rival gangs taking out the Godfathers). 4) Night elimination prevented by danmaku protection. There's no mention about being the only night kill, so assuming that each Mafia was giving their own night kill, then we may be seeing multiple in a single night from one group. 5) Spellcard kill immunity probably just relates to special abilities and Last Words. 6) Manipulation forced people to battle, giving more info and allowing for the use of other abilities.
Now, some things that I note: A lot of Tamashi's abilities are spellcard based. This leads me to suspect that whoever the other Godfather(s) are, their abilities are not, so as to provide variety, like how Pollux and Rat were similar in many ways, but had key differences. All Godfathers have the convert, which is probably the same; maybe night elimination immunity; and then their own kill technique. Maybe also spellcard kill immunity. The investigation is probably different, since no one else is making just as many duels, except maybe Ssaliss. And then the last ability is probably unique to each Godfather.
Anyway, we know that the Godfathers likely recruited on the first night, since we saw 4 saboteurs. So, we likely have 4 saboteurs left, 3 recruits and 1 Godfather.
As for everything else, Falmiis is slightly suspect for bringing up arsonists without really explaining anything other than their possible existence. However, Yarith has been withholding information that could have been used for Town about last day's lynch target. Also, their jailing targets seem a bit random.
Ooor, Ssaliss is the oft-referenced arson and marks people by dueling them. @Falmiis we could really use more information about this.
I have actually waited for someone to make that accusation. Problem is, it's kinda hard for me to prove I'm not an arsonist, so I'll just be content with saying I'm not. Then again, the real arsonist (assuming there is one) would also claim that, so... yeah.
I will, however, provide some data on duels.
6 people have won betted duels. Those are me, Falmiis, Luce, Tamashi, Weiwae and Lavinya. There have also been three forfeits; two of which was in favour of Tremula (Breandryn and Lavinya), and one favoring me (Sylandra).
I have won 3 betted duels; against Vivet (Aility), Lehki (Resilience) and Breandryn (Ability). Falmiis have won one against me (Spellcard) Lavinya have won one against me (Resilience) Luce has won three; against Ushaara (Resilience), Tamashi (Resilience) and me (Resilience) Tamashi has won one against Othero (Resilience) Weiwae has won one against Vivet (Resilience)
The losers of duels have been Vivet, me, Ushaara, Othero, Tamashi, Lehki, Breandryn and Lavinya. Interestingly, Luce has been in six duels (two as challenger, four as defender) and have won all six.
I will also point out that there is a minor point that might be worth bringing up. Forfeits do not count as losses, but they do count as victories. If there is an arsonist out there tagging people with duels, odds are those who forfeit are safe, as I would expect that to require an actual loss. That is just pure guesswork from my side though.
What does the pagoda do, @Yarith? Explain it in as much detail as you can, please?
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SylandraJoin Queue for Mafia GamesThe Last Mafia Game
Still smh at how open and freely everyone has played their spellcards. I hadn't even considered if that's how an arsonist might be making their mark, but since we haven't had any night indication it's a surprisingly realistic possibility. @Falmiis what are your thoughts on that? You pushed arsonist the most.
"Oh yeah, you're a naughty mayor, aren't you? Misfile that Form MA631-D. Comptroller Shevat's got a nice gemstone disc for you, but yer gonna have to beg for it."
It's worth remembering that I'm awesome. I haven't lost a duel yet because I suspect my cards are a fair clip stronger than other people's. Like, as long as I was the challenger, my weakest card can beat Tamashi's strongest.
But Ushaara can confirm that I play for keeps for a reason, and it's benign. I'm more than happy to demonstrate if anyone wants to volunteer.
@Ssaliss I getcha. My post was less about accusing you than it was highlighting how little we know about the situation and trying to get Falmiis to elaborate more on the situation. He's already insinuated that there is an arson, i'm not understanding what he has to lose with explaining. I guess I'll put pressure on him in the traditional way:
Vote Falmiis
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SylandraJoin Queue for Mafia GamesThe Last Mafia Game
"Oh yeah, you're a naughty mayor, aren't you? Misfile that Form MA631-D. Comptroller Shevat's got a nice gemstone disc for you, but yer gonna have to beg for it."
Might want to slow down those votes. Tamashi got executed on five, and that was at roughly 20% of the available votes (IIRC). We're in that same area now.
"Oh yeah, you're a naughty mayor, aren't you? Misfile that Form MA631-D. Comptroller Shevat's got a nice gemstone disc for you, but yer gonna have to beg for it."
If you do the math, with the blocked votes and the resilience lowered, Tamashi was executed at 50%.
Well, right now we're at 4 votes out of 9 needed, so if someone puts one more vote on Falmiis, he's in executioner territory. So either way, if we just want to push and don't want to push him into execution territory, we should slow down the votes.
Alright. I'm your doctor. The reason I so strongly that we have an arsonist is because my power specifically states that it doesn't protect people from being prepped by an arsonist, but will protect them if used on the night that an arsonist ignites people.
Okay, I can believe that actually. Reluctance to explain more earlier makes sense, but if we really do have a silent arsonist, think outting the doctor would be worth getting confirmation of their existence.
We should probably seriously consider if duels might be their tool for prepping somebody.
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SylandraJoin Queue for Mafia GamesThe Last Mafia Game
"Oh yeah, you're a naughty mayor, aren't you? Misfile that Form MA631-D. Comptroller Shevat's got a nice gemstone disc for you, but yer gonna have to beg for it."
I'm actually now really curious what duel-based town powers are out there because with what we've seen so far it currently feels like dueling is generally bad for town.
Were you doctoring Yarith then the other night, @Falmiis? That might account for one of the two night interactions he noticed if the other was an assumed elimination attempt?
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SylandraJoin Queue for Mafia GamesThe Last Mafia Game
I'm actually now really curious what duel-based town powers are out there because with what we've seen so far it currently feels like dueling is generally bad for town.
The ways in which I can see it being pro-town is being able to roleblock someone you suspect has a risky power, hit cards on cooldown for people who you feel are risks, lower the vote count of people strategically, etc, but that doesn't seem to be the way most people are approaching duels. It's more about confirming identity than it is about using the waged power for pro-town ends.
While being the challenger increases your chance of winning, I feel being the defender is the preferred spot in that you decide how high your stakes are.
"Oh yeah, you're a naughty mayor, aren't you? Misfile that Form MA631-D. Comptroller Shevat's got a nice gemstone disc for you, but yer gonna have to beg for it."
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SylandraJoin Queue for Mafia GamesThe Last Mafia Game
From the sound of things, no one experienced a visit from the talkative roleblocker last night either. Hmm.
I'm wondering if the person didn't act. I get the impression this game (Kira has more or less confirmed this) you will only be aware of being roleblocked if you try to take an action. Not everyone takes a night action, or chooses to, ergo meaning the roleblock might not have been activated in a noticeable way.
"Oh yeah, you're a naughty mayor, aren't you? Misfile that Form MA631-D. Comptroller Shevat's got a nice gemstone disc for you, but yer gonna have to beg for it."
Night 0 I protected Siam. Night 1 Ssaliss and night 3 Weiwae. I forgot to send in an action on night 2. For nights 0 and 1 I basically went for people who seemed to be winning duels because I figured that if they weren't mafia and mafia didn't have further information they'd be prime targets to go for. I went for Weiwae night 3 because he was one of the few that has a power that seems to be town-aligned.
I'm actually now really curious what duel-based town powers are out there because with what we've seen so far it currently feels like dueling is generally bad for town.
The ways in which I can see it being pro-town is being able to roleblock someone you suspect has a risky power, hit cards on cooldown for people who you feel are risks, lower the vote count of people strategically, etc, but that doesn't seem to be the way most people are approaching duels. It's more about confirming identity than it is about using the waged power for pro-town ends.
While being the challenger increases your chance of winning, I feel being the defender is the preferred spot in that you decide how high your stakes are.
Right, the challenged person honestly is such a better spot to be in, if you wanted to roleblock somebody with it they're basically going to have to agree to let you roleblock them. If you're challenging somebody you're essentially giving them the option to do any of those things to you, with little chance for you to actually get an effect off on them.
I feel like you'd really have to have some other reasons for wanting to challenge outside of the duel's wager to even issue a challenge.
Comments
Before the 'I have an ability that suggests there's arsonist' reveal, he did propose that arsonist fit the flavour of the game, but the shrine explosion has been attributed to Pollux, and Tamashi's role sheet shows saboteur role with no mention of arson, and immunity to danmaku rather than arson eliminations, so flavour points in favour of arson have been weakened somewhat.
Granted, it still remains a reasonable explanation for the lack of deaths, and I guess an arson-like power might have been one of the scrubbed details from Tamashi's role.. But if true, finding a silent arsonist is hella rough for town.
Vote: Falmiis
Vote: Falmiis
I want to talk about Tamashi's plethora of abilities. I'm going to assume that there were 6 separate abilities/immunities, based on the spacing around that 3rd "Details have been scrubbed".
1) Conversion allowed for the recruitment of 2 people who were eligible. I'm going to assume that what was scrubbed was what made someone ineligible. Also, probably something about the cult not allowed to kill the night they convert.
2) Investigation allowed him to see who people are, with caveats that were scrubbed. Probably what information exactly he received.
3) The entire third ability was scrubbed, which means that Tamashi never mentioned it (I'm going to assume that it was night elimination immunity, since they may not want rival gangs taking out the Godfathers).
4) Night elimination prevented by danmaku protection. There's no mention about being the only night kill, so assuming that each Mafia was giving their own night kill, then we may be seeing multiple in a single night from one group.
5) Spellcard kill immunity probably just relates to special abilities and Last Words.
6) Manipulation forced people to battle, giving more info and allowing for the use of other abilities.
Now, some things that I note: A lot of Tamashi's abilities are spellcard based. This leads me to suspect that whoever the other Godfather(s) are, their abilities are not, so as to provide variety, like how Pollux and Rat were similar in many ways, but had key differences. All Godfathers have the convert, which is probably the same; maybe night elimination immunity; and then their own kill technique. Maybe also spellcard kill immunity. The investigation is probably different, since no one else is making just as many duels, except maybe Ssaliss. And then the last ability is probably unique to each Godfather.
Anyway, we know that the Godfathers likely recruited on the first night, since we saw 4 saboteurs. So, we likely have 4 saboteurs left, 3 recruits and 1 Godfather.
As for everything else, Falmiis is slightly suspect for bringing up arsonists without really explaining anything other than their possible existence. However, Yarith has been withholding information that could have been used for Town about last day's lynch target. Also, their jailing targets seem a bit random.
FOS: Yarith.
I will, however, provide some data on duels.
6 people have won betted duels. Those are me, Falmiis, Luce, Tamashi, Weiwae and Lavinya. There have also been three forfeits; two of which was in favour of Tremula (Breandryn and Lavinya), and one favoring me (Sylandra).
I have won 3 betted duels; against Vivet (Aility), Lehki (Resilience) and Breandryn (Ability).
Falmiis have won one against me (Spellcard)
Lavinya have won one against me (Resilience)
Luce has won three; against Ushaara (Resilience), Tamashi (Resilience) and me (Resilience)
Tamashi has won one against Othero (Resilience)
Weiwae has won one against Vivet (Resilience)
The losers of duels have been Vivet, me, Ushaara, Othero, Tamashi, Lehki, Breandryn and Lavinya. Interestingly, Luce has been in six duels (two as challenger, four as defender) and have won all six.
I will also point out that there is a minor point that might be worth bringing up. Forfeits do not count as losses, but they do count as victories. If there is an arsonist out there tagging people with duels, odds are those who forfeit are safe, as I would expect that to require an actual loss. That is just pure guesswork from my side though.
But Ushaara can confirm that I play for keeps for a reason, and it's benign. I'm more than happy to demonstrate if anyone wants to volunteer.
Vote Falmiis
We should probably seriously consider if duels might be their tool for prepping somebody.
From the sound of things, no one experienced a visit from the talkative roleblocker last night either. Hmm.
While being the challenger increases your chance of winning, I feel being the defender is the preferred spot in that you decide how high your stakes are.
I feel like you'd really have to have some other reasons for wanting to challenge outside of the duel's wager to even issue a challenge.