I think specifically in this game, because there is a significant chance that we have straight up Vanilla townies, it really is in our best interest to lynch and the risk is going to be less that we'll do away with some useful power.
If we wanted to, we could even try and choose someone at the end of the draft order, to increase the likelihood that they are Vanilla. One of Vivet, Fyler or Lehki. or even one of Othero or Silvanus, if we're going by the logic that only one of the like numbered groups are scum, then that means we have a potential 50% chance that either Othero or Silvanus are scum. It is possible that neither of them are.
All I'm saying is we have more to work with than just random choosing and we can mitigate risk, which is new in this game.
##Unvote ##Vote: Silvanus
I don't have a reason why him in particular, I'd be willing to lynch Othero, Silvanus is just first.
The numbers never favor lynching day one. I will go back and reiterate a post I made in a previous mafia game once I get to a computer, but the odds are never in your favor for a day one lynch.
The only people that want a day one lynch are mafia members or those who do not know gambling numbers and odds.
Even pushing for a lynch on day one runs the risk of revealing too much information.
2014/04/19 01:38:01 - Leolamins drained 2000000 power to raise Silvanus as a Vernal Ascendant.
2014/07/23 05:01:29 - Silvanus drained 2000000 power to raise Munsia as a Vernal Ascendant.
2015/05/24 06:03:07 - Silvanus drained 2000000 power to raise Arimisia as a Vernal Ascendant.
2015/05/24 06:03:58 - Silvanus drained 2000000 power to raise Lavinya as a Vernal Ascendant.
I live in Las Vegas. I know odds. The odds are never in your favor for a lynch no matter where you are in the game, unless detective roles come forward.
Further, you day one lynched me in the last game. Convenient that you're all for it when it's someone else.
We had a Night 0. I also wanted a no lynch then, and voted for it. You also had a hidden double vote. These are not the same standards. Convenient that you forget to mention that.
And yes the odds are in your favor tomorrow for lunches. If one town member dies, our odds increase on lynching scum. The goal of mafia is to kill town. Town members are the resource. You are willing sacrificing a resource with the least amount of information available.
Since odds need explaining: 4/13 is your basis today. One person dies, your odds are 4/12. Odds are now in your favor compared to your base.
And investigations are not the only way to get info. For example, Kalikais case is based around the idea that mafia would line up their votes. Detective roles do not need to come forward.
2014/04/19 01:38:01 - Leolamins drained 2000000 power to raise Silvanus as a Vernal Ascendant.
2014/07/23 05:01:29 - Silvanus drained 2000000 power to raise Munsia as a Vernal Ascendant.
2015/05/24 06:03:07 - Silvanus drained 2000000 power to raise Arimisia as a Vernal Ascendant.
2015/05/24 06:03:58 - Silvanus drained 2000000 power to raise Lavinya as a Vernal Ascendant.
The odds go from 28% to 30% according to your numbers. I think perhaps you don't understand odds.
A 2% difference is inconsequential. Odds are, there won't be any information revealed from investigative roles tomorrow, as that would be far too soon and would likely lead to said investigative roles having a target painted on them.
That leaves gut feelings, looking at lynch trains, and examining the numbers as Kalikai said and making the assumption that mafia would not duplicate numbers.
That gives us, as Kalikai says, what are likely 1/2 odds of lynching mafia between you and Othero.
No, that is not the odds because there is no guarantee Othero or myself are mafia, so your odds are not 50%.
Also any improvement in odds is not inconsequential, I don't know why you would think that. The difference in blackjack in a casino is 8% between house and player. No gambler would dismiss 2% odds.
And reading the roles, there is an investigator with a one shot ability. So I don't know why you would dismiss an investigator reveal tomorrow. Also in the last game, I revealed day 2 as an investigator.
2014/04/19 01:38:01 - Leolamins drained 2000000 power to raise Silvanus as a Vernal Ascendant.
2014/07/23 05:01:29 - Silvanus drained 2000000 power to raise Munsia as a Vernal Ascendant.
2015/05/24 06:03:07 - Silvanus drained 2000000 power to raise Arimisia as a Vernal Ascendant.
2015/05/24 06:03:58 - Silvanus drained 2000000 power to raise Lavinya as a Vernal Ascendant.
The odds go from 28% to 30% according to your numbers. I think perhaps you don't understand odds.
A 2% difference is inconsequential. Odds are, there won't be any information revealed from investigative roles tomorrow, as that would be far too soon and would likely lead to said investigative roles having a target painted on them.
That leaves gut feelings, looking at lynch trains, and examining the numbers as Kalikai said and making the assumption that mafia would not duplicate numbers.
That gives us, as Kalikai says, what are likely 1/2 odds of lynching mafia between you and Othero.
I'm willing to bet on those odds.
Bolded for emphasis. I didn't say it was a guaranteed 50% chance. I said it's likely that it's a 50% chance.
And eff me. I stuck the old list in my head. I'm not a smart man without sufficient caffeine. ##UNVOTE
wow, Kalikai is all over the place with her votes.
Everiine said: The reason population is low isn't because there are too many orgs. It's because so many facets of the game are outright broken and protected by those who benefit from it being that way. An overabundance of gimmicks (including game-breaking ones), artifacts that destroy any concept of balance, blatant pay-to-win features, and an obsession with convenience that makes few things actually worthwhile all contribute to the game's sad decline.
Plus, I'm working a lot of hours and barely have time lately to be online for long periods of time. I'm here, though.
Everiine said: The reason population is low isn't because there are too many orgs. It's because so many facets of the game are outright broken and protected by those who benefit from it being that way. An overabundance of gimmicks (including game-breaking ones), artifacts that destroy any concept of balance, blatant pay-to-win features, and an obsession with convenience that makes few things actually worthwhile all contribute to the game's sad decline.
Yeah the thing with the grouping votes doesn't imply at least 1 of them is scum, it was at most. I'm not in favour of playing bad odds on day 1 lynch still.
Without additional information, your odds of lynching mafia will always be less than 50%.
Not going to dress it up. I'm jumping on this bandwagon because I like our chances of lynching someone who I see to be a higher than 1/14 chance of being scum than going no lynch.
The problem with going with flat odds on day 1 is that its not just odds. You're not just pulling a trigger and having a 4/14 chance of hitting scum and if you miss then at least tomorrow is a 4/12 chance. If you miss you might be hitting an investigator, a doctor, a role blocker, ect. A day 1 lynch has us at a severe disadvantage because not only are we at the worst odds in the game, we're also information starved and can do the most damage to ourselves.
Because Othero clashed with another person. This, to me, increases the likelihood that he is a mafia than someone who didn't clash with anyone at all. As I said, I'm not hiding the fact that I am just jumping on the bandwagon. Kalikai picked him so I'm going for it over the no lynch.
Wait, Tarkenton puts Phoebus on blast because he can't figure out a logic puzzle and I correct him, explain what was wrong, and give him a push back because he's coming out with attitude and I walk away looking scummy? If I was scum why would I correct him? It'd benefit the scum to let him chase his own tail for 3 days.
Comments
So you all can run out the clock, that's fine. I'll see you on the weekend.
If we wanted to, we could even try and choose someone at the end of the draft order, to increase the likelihood that they are Vanilla. One of Vivet, Fyler or Lehki. or even one of Othero or Silvanus, if we're going by the logic that only one of the like numbered groups are scum, then that means we have a potential 50% chance that either Othero or Silvanus are scum. It is possible that neither of them are.
All I'm saying is we have more to work with than just random choosing and we can mitigate risk, which is new in this game.
##Unvote
##Vote: Silvanus
I don't have a reason why him in particular, I'd be willing to lynch Othero, Silvanus is just first.
##VOTE: SILVANUS
The only people that want a day one lynch are mafia members or those who do not know gambling numbers and odds.
Even pushing for a lynch on day one runs the risk of revealing too much information.
Further, you day one lynched me in the last game. Convenient that you're all for it when it's someone else.
And yes the odds are in your favor tomorrow for lunches. If one town member dies, our odds increase on lynching scum. The goal of mafia is to kill town. Town members are the resource. You are willing sacrificing a resource with the least amount of information available.
Since odds need explaining: 4/13 is your basis today. One person dies, your odds are 4/12. Odds are now in your favor compared to your base.
And investigations are not the only way to get info. For example, Kalikais case is based around the idea that mafia would line up their votes. Detective roles do not need to come forward.
I will actually be able to go into mathematical details when at a computer, but mafia win probability greatly shoots up with day one lynches.
I think a lynch now relies on a lot of luck. Chance of lynching a town would also increase hugely if mafia is the one pointing the finger.
A 2% difference is inconsequential. Odds are, there won't be any information revealed from investigative roles tomorrow, as that would be far too soon and would likely lead to said investigative roles having a target painted on them.
That leaves gut feelings, looking at lynch trains, and examining the numbers as Kalikai said and making the assumption that mafia would not duplicate numbers.
That gives us, as Kalikai says, what are likely 1/2 odds of lynching mafia between you and Othero.
I'm willing to bet on those odds.
Also any improvement in odds is not inconsequential, I don't know why you would think that. The difference in blackjack in a casino is 8% between house and player. No gambler would dismiss 2% odds.
And reading the roles, there is an investigator with a one shot ability. So I don't know why you would dismiss an investigator reveal tomorrow. Also in the last game, I revealed day 2 as an investigator.
##Unvote
##Vote Othero
Same reasoning, just the actual correct pair.
And eff me. I stuck the old list in my head. I'm not a smart man without sufficient caffeine.
##UNVOTE
Better to act than to sit and do nothing though, much like you are
Plus, I'm working a lot of hours and barely have time lately to be online for long periods of time. I'm here, though.
##Vote: No Lynch
No Lynch - 2
Not going to dress it up. I'm jumping on this bandwagon because I like our chances of lynching someone who I see to be a higher than 1/14 chance of being scum than going no lynch.
I will say, that at this point, nobody else is really voting, just saying 'we should not lynch' - lets back stuff up and make some decisions.