Present revamp.

Shaddus

I'm wondering if Estarra and crew would be adverse to removing the current system we have for presents, or at least suspending it for Ironbeard/gnomes.

The current system was put in place during a time when people were opening presents in bulk, often twenty or more at a time. As Czigany coins are much more rare now, and there are obvious limits on how many presents one is able to gain from ironbeard and the gnomes, I feel that a reversion to the old way of handling presents would be a good idea.

Anyone else have thoughts on this?

Dys

I like the current way. Getting poisons or gold doesn't seem such a waste as it moves you up the track and there's still a chance of getting an Ultimate on every present. There's less of an immediate reward but as you move up it can get really good.

Shaddus

Yeah, but that's the point: you aren't moving up as fast as you used to. Sure, you've always got a chance to win that set of dragon breath gauntlets that would go smashingly with your plate, but a 1% chance of an ultimate unless you've opened 50+ presents is really, really rough.

Dys

Average numbers, just because they're interesting:

1 in 200 people will get an ultimate on their first opening.
1 in 40 will have opened one by the 5th present.
1 in 10 by the 21st
1 in 5 by the 45th
1 in 3 by the 75th, by which point they'll have seven exceptional presents, on average, and 17 standard. Chance for the ultimate rises steeply from here on with a 25% chance for an exceptional each time.
1 in 2 people will have got an ultimate by present 82.
3 in 4 by present 91.
9 in 10 by present 98.
99 in 100 by present 111.
999 in 1000 by present 118.

Shaddus

I have an alt with 44 presents in their counter, and their spread is something in the neighborhood of 63/25/11/ <1

Now, let's consider the average person. No presents in their counter, no life to speak of. Let's say ironbeard hits them once every 24 hours, and they catch 2-3 gnomes a day. How long is it going to take before their counter ramps up enough to give them a decent chance at an ultimate present?

Ssaliss

Dys said:

Average numbers, just because they're interesting: 1 in 200 people will get an ultimate on their first opening. 1 in 40 will have opened one by the 5th present. 1 in 10 by the 21st 1 in 5 by the 45th 1 in 3 by the 75th, by which point they'll have seven exceptional presents, on average, and 17 standard. Chance for the ultimate rises steeply from here on with a 25% chance for an exceptional each time. 1 in 2 people will have got an ultimate by present 82. 3 in 4 by present 91. 9 in 10 by present 98. 99 in 100 by present 111. 999 in 1000 by present 118.

What are you basing these numbers on? Do you have a formula that determines the odds of getting presents at a certain gift count?

Kio

Yea, my free holiday present from the admin wasn't a 300cr artifact.  I'm upset about the way presents work, too.

Dys

The present counter starts at 85%/14%/0.5%/0.5%. Every present takes 0.5% off the standard present and adds it onto the next highest that's below 25%, so the first counter is 84.5%/14.5%/0.5%/0.5%.

The exceptional chance starts going up at present 23, which is 73.5%/25%/1%/0.5%.

The ultimate chance starts going up at present 72, which is 49%/25%/25%/1%.

That formula is what the calculations above are based on.

Getting an ultimate as fast as possible probably isn't the most rewarding in terms of credits etc. Unless you get one first present.

Exceptional presents are really good, just not as flashy as the ultimates. I need to recalculate since the presents changed but they used to be worth about 2 million gold on average (valuing credits at 20k) compared to 7 million for an ultimate.

Yes, I had too much time on my hands...

Tandrin

I think the counter is fine as is. My only suggested revamp might be the tiers of gifts. Not sure poisons or gold should be anything other than a standard gift for example.

Shaddus

I could see that, true.

Dys

Making lots of assumptions I make the average gold equivalent present value at each tier:

Standard 90k
Superior 200k
Exceptional 1.2m
Ultimate 6.6m

Assuming 1 cr = 1 dB = 20k gold, using list prices for artifacts, and making a few assumptions about % chances as they're truncated in the present lists.

Vivet

Dys said:

 Standard 90k

That feels waaaaaay too high to be the average. Then again, most of my standard presents are commodities/herbs/tints. Sometimes their value doesn't really exceed 2K gold. I think it's just too hard to predict the value of whatever you get if it's liquids/commodities.

Turnus

Things like poisons and palettes could probably use to be removed from standard gifts, the number of people that actually use them is so small that they just feel like a let down to get.

Arimisia

I got a superior gift the other day, 18k gold. I was a little miffed because 18k in my eyes, is not superior in any ways shape or form. =\

Dys

Vivet said:

Dys said:

 Standard 90k

That feels waaaaaay too high to be the average. Then again, most of my standard presents are commodities/herbs/tints. Sometimes their value doesn't really exceed 2K gold. I think it's just too hard to predict the value of whatever you get if it's liquids/commodities.


Grr, mishapen forum quotes. Anyway...

Two thirds of results are low value, say zero. The other third are worth 10-15 credits, so 200k-300k gold. So ⅔ x 0 + ⅓ x 300k = 100k average.

I left the spreadsheet at work but could link it tomorrow if anyone's interested.

Turnus

Dys said:

Vivet said:

Dys said:

 Standard 90k

That feels waaaaaay too high to be the average. Then again, most of my standard presents are commodities/herbs/tints. Sometimes their value doesn't really exceed 2K gold. I think it's just too hard to predict the value of whatever you get if it's liquids/commodities.

Two thirds of results are low value, say zero. The other third are worth 10-15 credits, so 200k-300k gold. So ⅔ x 0 + ⅓ x 300k = 100k average.

I left the spreadsheet at work but could link it tomorrow if anyone's interested.




Tsk, so that is what you spend all your time at work doing?

(He said from his phone while at work)

Dys

Statistical training? :-?

Malayn

The idea of average is questionable here. For instance if I flip a coin twice and get heads twice, what is the odds the next flip is heads? Heads 3 times in a row is 1 in 8. That is not how this works though, that is the odds of getting the same thing 3 times. The chance the next one is heads is 1 in 2, chance doesn't have a memory.

So what is the math you used to reach your conclusions exactly?

Turnus

Erm, the example formula she gave for determining an "average value" of presents is right, assuming the value she gives is right and the chances of every possibility is right (and its truly random).

The average value of something has less meaning with such extremes though, and might be worthwhile to for instance say what the standard deviation is too if you were really feeling bored/ambitious.

Lerad

I haven't read this thread in detail before now, but I agree with Malarious that Dys' post here is iffy:

Dys said:

Average numbers, just because they're interesting: 1 in 200 people will get an ultimate on their first opening. 1 in 40 will have opened one by the 5th present. 1 in 10 by the 21st 1 in 5 by the 45th 1 in 3 by the 75th, by which point they'll have seven exceptional presents, on average, and 17 standard. Chance for the ultimate rises steeply from here on with a 25% chance for an exceptional each time. 1 in 2 people will have got an ultimate by present 82. 3 in 4 by present 91. 9 in 10 by present 98. 99 in 100 by present 111. 999 in 1000 by present 118.

According to Dys, the chance to get an Ultimate present doesn't increase from 0.5 until the 73rd present. Which means, for your first 72 presents, the chance of getting an utlimate hasn't changed: it's 1 out of 200 for all 72 times you open a present. Nothing indicates that 1 in 40 people will get an Ultimate on their 5th present. That simply makes no sense.

Ssaliss

Note that he says "by", not "on". If there's a 1/200 chance to get a present, then there's a 2.47% chance of getting one in five tries. Is it exactly 1/40? No, but it's close enough (1/40 would be 2.5%)

Dys

Sorry yes, all those were rounded to nice numbers. I missed that note out. Ssaliss is right that they're cumulative.

The probability of getting an ultimate doesn't change for the first 72 presents so it is like flipping coins where the chance of 'success' is 0.5%. To get an ultimate present on attempt 3 you didn't get one on attempts 1 and 2, so that chance is P(not ultimate) * P(not ultimate) * P(ultimate)
= 99.5% * 99.5% * 0.5% = 0.495%.

To get the chance to get an ultimate by attempt 3 (inclusive) that's the chance to get one on attempt 1, plus attempt 2, plus attempt 3
= 0.5% + 0.498% +0.495% = 1.49% (rounded to 2 d.p.)

Sorry for formatting, posting from phone.


Malarious, I agree that chance doesn't have memory, but I'm looking at sequences of events like your three heads in a row not what will happen next on present 52, etc.

Sorry for the derail Shaddus, but now we have numbers!

Ssaliss

Personally, I prefer to reverse the odds. The odds of getting a present by the third try is the opposite of the odds of not getting one for three tries, which is 0.995^3 or roughly 98.507%. The opposite of that is 1.493%.