Silvanus · The Sparrowhawk
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Oh shit you are right. Two games ago I was third party investigator
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No, that is not the odds because there is no guarantee Othero or myself are mafia, so your odds are not 50%.
Also any improvement in odds is not inconsequential, I don't know why you would think that. The difference in blackjack in a casi… -
4/14 and someone dies your odds tomorrow are now 4/13.
I will actually be able to go into mathematical details when at a computer, but mafia win probability greatly shoots up with day one lynches. -
We had a Night 0. I also wanted a no lynch then, and voted for it. You also had a hidden double vote. These are not the same standards. Convenient that you forget to mention that.
And yes the odds are in your favor tomorrow for lunches. … -
The numbers never favor lynching day one. I will go back and reiterate a post I made in a previous mafia game once I get to a computer, but the odds are never in your favor for a day one lynch.
The only people that want a day one lynch a… -
I picked up Total War Attila, but now may pick up Stellaris
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Yes but you also speed up the rate that town loses by taking a chance on a random lynch. Just by assuming one town dies tonight, our odds of lynching scum increase tomorrow.
Town has a very limited number of mistakes, any mistake we make… -
I am glad we cleared up the voting, that was really the only thing that I had to go on. I am okay with a no lynch, and do prefer that over lynching a town.
Looking at th draft order and what roles fell where will be important later in th… -
Hello hello!
I think lehkis logic from the time when we shouldn't have been talking is technically sound, it is highly unlikely that they choose the same numbers. I would not be surprised if they went 1 2 3 or 2 3 4 or some variation of t… -
I didn't want to overthink it and just went with my favorite numbers
2 and 13 -
Ellowyn asked me to post for her to add to the signup list.
I think she thought it would go quickly. -
I'll sign up.
72/24 or 96/24 work for me -
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Thanks for the game Vivet! I loved the mob mentality.
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Yeah I figured I had my play setup perfectly for such a good role, I just had to avoid dying. Offing two of them at the same time I figured would cause havoc.
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You have about six hours before the day ends.
Is there any belief that Tremula has some sort of supermajority or lynch defying ability? If so, you should be voting. -
Honestly I feel it would be pretty hard to avoid a lynch at this point, you are not town and someone has to be lynched.
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Yep that is a Celina thing, this time probably right call if you believe no copycat.
I lean towards serial killer more likely than mafia for Tremula, but we will see by tomorrow.
Unvote
Vote Tremula -
To confirm exactly: 25.5 hours to go.
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I'm not sure how many uses his lie checker has, but if he has more uses for each day phase he should use. He will have a bullseye on him from here on out.
I win with GAH and its allies.
To the Othero question: my intention was … -
(Quote) The Inn is next to my home, the forests around the town and in the valley. Generally these types of shenanigans attracts many different types of visitors that go through my home to get to town.
I am not sure I understand t… -
Dys: Scum to me is anyone that gets in the way of town wins.
On the Eldanien affair: I am not quite sure how to process that and I do not think it is a tree worth barking up for, considering we are halfway done with the day phase. We shou… -
My role is anything but vanilla.
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I guess in the interest of sharing things that town can benefit from, the reason my role doesn't have another name is because I am an animal, though it does mention elves.
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I wasn't given any names either, and our known mafia was given one so I wouldn't use that as a qualifer
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Alright, however my guess is Tremula has a power that counters yours? That is how she knows it exists. I don't have an opinion on the scummy nature of that in relation to your power, you would know better.
If you want hindsight to day one… -
Two people with supermajority?
And who saw the mice originally again? Maybe the mice are now whatever ruby Eldanien saw? -
I am willing to go along with the reasons but was your rainbow the same as Shaddus'? Because that sounds like a protector and they should not give up information and I don't understand the fishing for that info, which makes me reluctant.
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(Quote) Why do you say try? Did you receive a message you were protected and it failed or something else give you that impression?
Also is the rainbow shield the same as what Eldanien saw? -
Because you could still be wrong. They may not be mafia but that's no guarantee they are town.
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